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Saturday, March 29, 2008

KLCI : Challenging Massive Gap

Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ still managed to keep their heads above water despite consumer confidence index checked in well below market expectation. Besides, our market also reacted positively to the news from Invest Malaysia. The KLCI is now entering the massive “Downside Gap” created on 10 March 2008. It will not be easy for the bulls at the gap area. Although we are now eyeing the near-term market with bullish eyes, we still want to warn ahead that there is still a possibility the market could consolidate sideways within a wide zone ranging from the 1157 pts level to the 1243 pts level. Note that the key index only eked out from the 1143 pts level by 2.42 pts.

Immediate resistance for the market remains at the 1243-1296 pts area. To the downside,continue to look for an immediate support at the 1200 pts level followed by the 1157 pts level.

Monday, March 17, 2008

JPMorgan to Buy Bear for $2 a Share

With a deal finally struck, JPMorgan Chase & Co. will embark on the tough task of absorbing Bear Stearns Cos., once among its biggest rivals on Wall Street.

As the assimilation proceeds, the financial industry wants to know exactly how badly Bear Stearns bet on mortgage-backed investments. Unwinding the nation's fifth-biggest investment houses should provide some insight into what other financial institutions might have on their books.

JPMorgan's acquisition of Bear Stearns for the shockingly low price of $2 per share, or $236.2 million, occurred Sunday night, in a deal that was fast-tracked by the federal government to avoid a bankruptcy. A complete collapse of Bear Stearns might have completely crushed the already-dwindling confidence in the global financial system, which has frozen up after last year's collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

Bear Stearns was the most exposed to risky bets on the loans; it is now the first major bank to be undone by that market's collapse.

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government swiftly approved the all-stock buyout to complete the deal before world markets opened. The Fed also essentially made the takeover risk-free by saying it would guarantee up to $30 billion of the troubled mortgage and other assets that got the nation's fifth-largest investment bank into trouble.

"This is going to go down in very historic terms," said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist for New York-based Meridian Equity Partners. "This is about credit being overextended, and how bad it is for major financial institutions and for individuals. This is why we're probably heading into a recession."

JPMorgan said it will guarantee all business -- such as trading and investment banking -- unti Bear Stearns' shareholders approve the deal, expected to be completed during the second quarter. The acquisition includes Bear Stearns' midtown Manhattan headquarters.

JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Michael Cavanagh did not say what would happen to Bear Stearns' 14,000 employees worldwide, or whether the 85-year-old Bear Stearns name would live on after surviving the Great Depression and a slew of recessions. He told analysts and investors on a conference call that JPMorgan was most interested in buying Bear Stearns' prime brokerage business, which completes trades for big investors such as hedge funds.

At almost the same time as the deal for control of Bear Stearns was announced, the Federal Reserve said it approved a cut in its lending rate to banks to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent and created another lending facility for big investment banks. The central bank's official meeting is Tuesday. Before the emergency move to lower the discount rate -- the rate at which banks lend each other money -- the Fed was widely expected to again cut its headline rate by as much as a full point to 2 percent.

Some analysts expected it to be a brutal day for global stocks. Shortly after the news broke, Japan's benchmark Nikkei stock index plunged more than 3 percent in morning trading.

JPMorgan's acquisition of Bear Stearns represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.

"The past week has been an incredibly difficult time for Bear Stearns," said Bear Stearns Chie Executive Alan Schwartz in a statement. "This represents the best outcome for all of our constituencies based upon the current circumstances."

Wall Street analysts say the bid to rescue Bear Stearns was more than just saving one of th world's largest investments banks -- it was a prop for the U.S. economy and the
global financial system. An outright failure would cause huge losses for banks, hedge funds and other investors to which Bear Stearns is connected.

After days of denials that it had liquidity problems, Bear was forced into a JPMorgan-led, government-backed bailout on Friday. The arrangement, the first of its kind since the 1930s, resulted in Bear getting a 28-day loan from JPMorgan with the government's guarantee that JPMorgan would not suffer any losses on the deal.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

ASEAMBANKERS : Daily Technical Outlook

The benchmark KLCI suffered a major setback yesterday, falling below the 1,200 psychological level to close at 1,173.22. The heavy selling also triggered the circuit breaker in the afternoon session, reflecting the current bearish tone in the market.

While bottom fishing activities narrowed early losses, we reckon that the downdraft on the KLCI has yet to bottom out, and could ignite further profit taking. The MACD signal line has plunged further into negative territory, suggesting that any technical rebound would be short-lived. At this juncture, we believe a free fall below the 1,150 level could bring the KLCI towards the next suppor at 1,100. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and avoid playing catch up.

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Friday, March 7, 2008

12th General Election

By Stocktube

In less than 24 hours eligible Malaysian will become the “decision maker” of their own destiny – to vote their candidates and parties in the 12th General Election. This is the only chance to make things right after most of them screwed up big time four years ago when the slogan of empty promises were drummed into their ears. Strangely this time around the posters war wasn’t that fierce although oppositions managed to make fools out of Gerakan’s sloganeering, one of the component parties within the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition.

Huge crowds numbering to a staggering 50,000 were seen braving rain and traffic for the sake of listening to oppositions’ speeches in Penang, Malaysia. But the billion-dollar question is will these people who enjoyed the spectacular speeches are brave enough to put the cross (for opposition) onto the voting paper tomorrow? Opposition party DAP should still remember how despite the same huge crowds back in 1999 the Penangites sent the party packing. It was disastrous and DAP was speechless after the Penang Chinese chickened out.

DAP ceramah at Penang attracts 50,000It was quite easy to check-mate DAP really. Everything boils down to the Chinese voters who are very scares of the slightest threat. Forget about common sense and logical thinking. The Penang Chinese could easily be intimidated with the simplest yet silliest threat of all. Just throw in threat such as the Chinese representatives in the government will be reduced to almost nil. Tell them that the next Chief Minister will not be Chinese if they vote oppositions. Better still throw in the threat that all the multinational companies will pull out from Penang if opposition wins, hence potential loss of jobs. Also threat them with no more education allocation for Chinese schools if Penangites vote for oppositions.

Despite being complex, Penang Chinese are as kiasu and kiasi as Singaporean and are definitely not risk-takers despite being fooled by the National Front again and again without fail. Oppositions are claiming this is the best time to deny the arrogant National Front their two-third majority and could even form the new government but let’s get real. It’s easier to strike RM20 million lottery than to capture 75 parliamentary seats necessary to deny Abdullah Badawi’s team. The stars are not aligned in favor of oppositions.

While the oppositions could rely on the already irritated Indian to swing most of the votes, the same cannot be said about Chinese votes especially Penang. Chinese votes will be split for the opposition as well as the National Front leaving the Malay votes quietly send the National Front to victorious. That’s the most likely scenario. It holds water the argument from the author of Malaysia-Today author, Raja Petra Kamarudin, that while the Indian somehow awaken from their 50-years sleep the Chinese and Malay are still in their stupid mode. It’s true that while Indian has already got their Hindraf, the Chinese are still thinking of bank-draft while Malay is enjoying their over-draft.

On the other hand let’s see what if somehow the opposition miraculously able to deny the National Front their two-third majority by capturing 75 parliamentary seats. You don’t expect the BN to sleep through it (I know, I know, the Prime Minister has the tendency to sleep on the job), do you? How hard could it be to spend a couple of millions to buy over some oppositions to make up the two-third majority, not that the oppositions had not crossed over before. MalaysiaKini managed to interview former dictator Mahathir who shared his view on why we need opposition (now he’s talking), Samy Vellu should be kicked out (can you believe this old fox?) and the feel good factor is simply not there.

And please don’t forget the bonus or reserve votes specifically tailored made for National Front to the tune of over 200,000 army votes. The bias Election Commission can deploy this huge votes anywhere required to cheat help National Front again. Need I say about the phantom votes again? So, the time for National Front or BN to be toppled has not yet arrived. Maybe if the Penangites are ready (and brave enough) to come forward by voting for oppositions tomorrow, it could provides the first step towards the chance of denying National Front its two-third majority in the next coming 13th General Election.

Enjoy the campaign (ceramah) video by Raja Petra Kamarudin in SS2 below. Can you imagine what could happen if there’s no YouTube? Oppositions will be slaughtered by the government-controlled print and electronic media. Perhaps Abdullah Badawi should consider buy over YouTube instead of the stupid “Corridors” projects.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Stick to fundamentals

2008 is a year of two elections; thus, we expect the pump priming activities to continue well into the 2H. Moreover, with high commodity prices (good for the rural community), the underlying economy remains intact. We expect the economy to be relatively resilient, reporting growth of 5.3% in 2008 and 5.8% in 2009.

We continue to like the plantation and construction sectors, plus the GLC restructuring theme. In our view, investors should stick to the fundamentals, as politically charged “election plays” could continue to see some selling pressure after polling day. Note that in 3 of the last 4 general elections, the KL Composite Index has underperformed the MSCI NJA Index after the polling dates.

  • Bumiputra-Commerce Holdings Bhd (BUCM.KL, RM10.40, OUTPERFORM, TP RM14.15)
  • IOI Corporation (IOIB.KL, RM7.85, OUTPERFORM, TP RM9.00)
  • Telekom Malaysia (TLMM.KL, RM11.20, OUTPERFORM, TP RM13.30)
  • Tenaga Nasional (TENA.KL, RM8.95, OUTPERFORM, TP RM13.50)
  • Resorts World (RWBW.KL, RM3.72, OUTPERFORM, TP RM5.85)
  • SP Setia (SETI.KL, RM4.90, OUTPERFORM, TP RM6.90)
  • IJM Corporation Berhad (IJMS.KL, RM7.10, OUTPERFORM, TP RM10.30)
  • Alliance Financial Group BHD (ALFG.KL, RM2.81, OUTPERFORM, TP RM4.11)

Wall Street Drops amid Credit Concerns

Stocks tumbled Thursday as the ailing credit market and a spike in home foreclosures intensified the market's worries about a sagging economy. The Dow Jones industrials gave up 214 points.

Concerns about credit grew after Thornburg Mortgage Inc. and a Carlyle Group bond fund revealed troubles with investments backed by mortgages. The entities failed to make margin calls, which are payments to guarantee much larger debt or investments.

And the genesis of the credit concerns that erupted last year -- souring mortgage loans -- dealt investors another blow after the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that home foreclosures rose to record levels in the fourth quarter. Worries about defaults have made lenders hesitant to extend credit, preventing the credit markets from functioning normally.

Wall Street's sense that credit troubles are seeping further into areas of the financial sector once deemed safe weighed on financial stocks and the broader market.

Gold -- regarded as a defensive investment -- slipped Thursday, but remains only about $20 away from the psychological benchmark of $1,000 an ounce.

Bad news about the housing market further dented sentiment. The Mortgage Bankers Association said the proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure jumped to a record 0.83 percent in the final quarter of 2007. The group also warned that foreclosures are likely to continue to rise as the number of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments has jumped to its highest level since 1985.

The Federal Reserve added more unwelcome housing news in reporting that Americans' debt on their homes exceeds their equity for the first time since the central bank began tracking the figures in 1945. Homeowners' percentage of equity fell to 47.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

Wall Street is worried that Americans distressed about their home values or struggling with mortgage payments will pare their spending. Investors appeared to take an upbeat report from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as a mixed signal. While Wal-Mart reported stronger-than-expected sales for February, some investors are worried that success at the world's largest retailer reflects increased bargain-hunting by consumers.

Wall Street Falls on Continuing Worries About Credit Markets

Wall Street pulled back sharply Thursday after renewed concerns about the credit markets and another dose of disappointing housing numbers intensified the market's worries about the sagging economy.

The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 120 points after two reports were issued about the housing industry. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that home foreclosures hit an all-time high in the fourth quarter, while the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales were again sluggish last month.

Credit concerns continued to plague the market after lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc. and investment management firm Carlyle Capital Corp. both said they missed margin calls. Both companies have significant mortgage-backed securities holdings, which has collapsed since the subprime crisis began during the summer.

Oil Prices Spike to Record $105.10

Oil Prices Spike to Record $105.10 in Wake of Supply Report and OPEC Production Call.On Thursday, a day after a surprise drop in U.S. crude supplies and a decision by OPEC not to
boost production.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Buffett Says US Economy Essentially in a Recession

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett says the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn't met the technical definition of one yet.

Buffett said Monday in an interview with CNBC that the reports he gets from the retail businesses his holding company owns show a significant slowdown in purchases.

The chairman and CEO of Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway says millions of people have also lost equity in their homes because home prices have dropped.

The technical definition of a recession most economists use is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the nation's gross domestic product.

But Buffett says the economy is clearly in a recession "by any commonsense definition."